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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It often acts as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

But the latest competition is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans rising collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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